How Oklahoma Cities Rental Market Will Thrive in the Next Recession with Key Evidence and Statistics

The next economic downturn will challenge many real estate markets across the United States. Yet, Oklahoma City and its nearby cities stand out as strongholds where the rental market is likely to not only survive but thrive. This article explores why investors should pay close attention to Oklahoma’s rental market during the next recession, supported by concrete evidence and statistics.

Modern apartment complex in Oklahoma City, showing stable rental demand

Steady Population Growth Supports Rental Demand

Oklahoma City has experienced consistent population growth over the past decade. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the city’s population increased by approximately 8% from 2010 to 2020, reaching over 680,000 residents. Surrounding cities such as Norman, Edmond, and Moore have also seen steady increases.

Population growth directly fuels rental demand. New residents often prefer renting before buying homes, especially during uncertain economic times. This trend was evident during the 2008 recession when Oklahoma City’s rental occupancy rates remained above 95%, compared to national averages that dipped below 90%.

Affordable Housing Attracts Renters

One key factor making Oklahoma’s rental market resilient is affordability. The median rent in Oklahoma City is about $900 per month, significantly lower than the national median rent of roughly $1,500. This affordability attracts a broad range of renters, including young professionals, families, and retirees.

During recessions, many households downsize or delay home purchases, increasing demand for affordable rentals. Oklahoma’s cost advantage means renters are less likely to leave the market, keeping vacancy rates low and rental income stable for investors.

Diverse Economy Provides Stability

Oklahoma City benefits from a diverse economy that cushions it against severe downturns. Key sectors include energy, aerospace, healthcare, and education. For example, the energy sector, while cyclical, is balanced by steady growth in healthcare and government jobs.

This economic diversity supports steady employment, which in turn sustains rental demand. During the 2020 COVID-19 recession, Oklahoma City’s unemployment rate peaked at 8.1%, lower than the national peak of 14.8%. This relative stability helped maintain rental payments and occupancy.

Strong Rental Market Fundamentals

Data from the Oklahoma City Apartment Association shows that vacancy rates have consistently hovered around 5% or lower in recent years. Lower vacancy rates indicate strong demand and limited supply, a positive sign for investors.

Rental price growth has also been steady. From 2015 to 2023, average rents in Oklahoma City increased by about 3% annually, outpacing inflation in many years. This steady growth suggests landlords can expect reliable cash flow even during economic slowdowns.

Surrounding Cities Offer Additional Opportunities

Cities near Oklahoma City, such as Norman and Edmond, complement the rental market’s strength. Norman, home to the University of Oklahoma, has a large student population that drives rental demand year-round. Edmond, known for its quality schools and family-friendly neighborhoods, attracts long-term renters.

Investors looking to diversify within the region can find opportunities in these cities with similar affordability and demand trends. For example, Norman’s rental vacancy rate was just 4.2% in 2023, reflecting strong market fundamentals.

Downtown OKC

Why Investors Should Consider Oklahoma Cities Now

• Resilient rental demand: Population growth and affordability keep occupancy rates high.

• Stable rental income: Steady rent increases and low vacancy rates protect cash flow.

• Economic diversity: Multiple industries reduce risk of widespread job losses.

• Regional opportunities: Surrounding cities offer varied rental markets with strong fundamentals.

• Lower entry costs: Compared to larger metros, Oklahoma cities offer attractive prices for investors.